Prior to the pandemic, the Express Entry draws were predictable. Well, this is not an official policy; IRCC would generally hold draws every two weeks. Every draw typically features around 3,000 ITAs for PR & CRS cut-offs over 470 points. 

Things were more stable back then, as Express Entry policy objectives had remained largely intact since the system was introduced in January 2015. Moreover, IRCC was quite close to attaining its goal of processing 80% of Express Entry PR applications within six months or less. As a result, IRCC can continue issuing new ITAs at regular intervals, giving Express Entry applicants more certainty. 

Since the onset of the pandemic, Express Entry draws have taken place with a far lesser degree of predictability. There is no longer a recurring pattern of when a draw will occur, the draw type, the number of ITAs, or CRS cut-offs. 

For instance, this year, Express Entry draws took place every two weeks until June. Once IRCC introduced category-based selection, draws began to take place more frequently as IRCC sought to attain a broader array of policy goals, including addressing acute labor shortages & welcoming Francophone immigrants. 

Between June 27 and August 1, a period in which category-based selection was introduced, IRCC held a total of 12 Express Entry draws. This was unprecedented; IRCC would typically hold between 4 and 8 draws over a comparable time period. IRCC then held off on issuing Express Entry invitations for one month before holding nine more draws between September 19 & October 26.

There has not been a draw since October 26, nor has IRCC explained potential reasons for the pause. However, numerous vital factors might affect how IRCC decides when to hold Express Entry draws. 

Immigration Levels Plan 

Apart from knowing how IRCC decides when to hold Express Entry draws, it is also important to note that every year, IRCC releases its Immigration Levels Plan. The plan sets targets for the number of PR admissions arriving in Canada annually for the upcoming three years. These targets are further segregated by category, like Express Entry applicants. 

For instance, IRCC plans to land 110,770 immigrants via Express Entry in 2024. Moreover, IRCC will invite around 117,550 immigrants in 2025 & 2026. Well, these numbers include the principal candidates who obtained Express Entry ITAs & their eligible partners, as well as dependents who they can add to their PR applications. 

In order to ensure that IRCC meets these targets, it needs to constantly evaluate the number of PR applications in the processing queue. In case there are sufficient applications for IRCC to meet its objectives for the present as well as the forthcoming year, it might not be necessary for the department to issue any further ITAs. If there aren’t enough applications in the processing queue, IRCC will hold more draws or issue more ITAs. 

In addition, when deciding on the number of ITAs to issue in terms of targets, the immigration department considers both the present year as well as the forthcoming year because it takes around six months to process the final application of an Express Entry applicant. This implies that ITAs issued in the latter half of 2023 will result in a PR completing their landing in 2024. 

IRCC Policy Objectives 

IRCC should also consider the types of draws it should hold to fulfill the objectives of the policy. Canada’s immigration minister has a mandate to strengthen the national economy. Moreover, the minister does this by issuing instructions to invite newcomers/ immigrants with relevant skills to close gaps in the labor force & contribute to the economy as quickly as possible after landing in Canada. Another crucial way this is done is by issuing Express Entry invitations to PNP applicants.

Deciding which applicants to invite takes time & consideration. This can result in occasional pauses to Express Entry draws as IRCC evaluates its alternatives. For instance, the minister should decide if applicants should obtain invitations in an all-program draw, which considers applicants from all three Express Entry managed programs or if it makes more sense to hold program-specific draws or invite applicants in a category-based round of invitations.  

Back in 2021, IRCC was looking to attain its goal of landing over 400,000 new permanent residents despite the ongoing challenges with the pandemic. One significant way it looked to achieve this goal is by holding large Express Entry draws for CEC applicants. Since most of them were already in Canada, it would be quicker for IRCC to land them as permanent inhabitants.

Below is the introduction of category-based draws to cater to broader policy objectives, which include: 

  • Promoting economic development in areas/ regions across the nation. 
  • Inviting applicants with high human capital who are well-placed to integrate into the labor market. 
  • Facilitating temporary to PR transitions. 
  • Strengthening Francophone communities outside the province of Quebec. 
  • Inviting applicants with relevant work experience in STEM, transportation, trade, healthcare, & agriculture. 

Changes To The CRS System & Express Entry Profiles 

In order to know how IRCC decides when to hold Express Entry draws, it is also important to note that occasional changes to the CRS & other Express Entry profile changes might also affect Express Entry draws. 

While it doesn’t happen frequently, a transition in how IRCC allocates CRS points to a specific attribute can also influence the frequency of Express Entry draws. 

For instance, in 2020, IRCC increased the number of CRS points an applicant would obtain for French proficiency. When that happens, IRCC needs to complete numerous technical updates in order to ensure that all existing profiles are up to date with accurate CRS scores. 

Similarly, IRCC needed to phase out NOC Skill Types in favor of the new TEER system last year.

IT Issues 

IT issues, like glitches are another factor which can affect Express Entry. Recently, IRCC reported that there is a problem with the Express Entry profile builder. Because of the glitch, applicants who have already obtained an ITA might not be able to upload their final application for PR within 60 days. 

Moreover, IRCC tweeted that candidates who are unable to upload their profiles because of the glitch will have an additional 60 days to submit their applications. 

Rollouts of new systems might result in IRCC glitches. For instance, at a recent meeting of the Standing Committee on Citizenship & Immigration, IRCC’s Deputy Minister Christiane Fox pointed out that there were some IT-related issues following the introduction of category-based selection rounds. 

When such glitches take place, IRCC might decide to hold off on draws until it resolves the problem. 

Furthermore, there were no Express Entry draws between November 23, 2022 & January 11, 2023, because of an IT issue associated with the updates of the NOC system. The glitch resulted in some ineligible applicants being issued ITAs. 

Staffing Changes At IRCC 

A change in staff can also affect Express Entry draws. This could be anything from a new Immigration Minister, Deputy Minister, or other officials accountable for Express Entry. Moreover, it takes time for staff to get up to speed in their new position. 

IRCC is undergoing a reorganization after former Deputy Minister Neil Yeates released a report highlighting department inefficiencies. In the report, he suggested restructuring the organization of IRCC based on business lines. 

In an interview, the Deputy Minister asserted that the department has already been making changes to reflect some of the suggestions. This would inevitably affect staffing within the department.