IRCC anticipates that by the end of this year, over half a million Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will either leave Canada or transition to permanent residency (PR).

Non-Permanent Residents include individuals in Canada on temporary visas, such as work or study permit holders. Although IRCC has set targets for 2025, any further targets could change and will only be officially determined by November 1 of the prior year.

Version 2: The immigration department of Canada has outlined its expectations for the number of new Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) it plans to accept over the next three years. This initiative supports the IRCC’s target of maintaining NPR levels at around 5% of Canada’s overall population.

In this context, NPR can also denote:

  • Individuals seeking asylum
  • Protected individuals
  • Dependents belonging to any specific group, such as those with work permits, study permits, asylum seekers, or protected individuals.

What are the anticipated outflows of Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) that the IRCC expects for this year and the next three years? 

As stated in Canada’s Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, the IRCC forecasts that 588,409 Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will either leave Canada or become Permanent Residents (PRs) by the end of this year. Although the department plans to reduce the number of NPRs in the upcoming years, they still predict a net increase of 299,216 NPRs by the close of 2024. The IRCC estimates that around 2.9 million NPRs will be residing in Canada at year’s end, which would make up 7.1% of the total population.

In the next three years, the IRCC anticipates the following outflows of NPRs in Canada:

Here’s the information rephrased into short sentence points:

  • In 2025, total NPR outflows are projected to be 1,262,801.
  • For 2026, the expected total NPR outflows are 1,104,658.
  • By 2027, total NPR outflows are anticipated to be 875,179.
  • The net change in NPR numbers is expected to be -445,901 in 2025.
  • In 2026, the net change will be -445,622.
  • For 2027, a net increase of 17,439 is projected.
  • The population of NPRs in Canada is estimated to be 2,515,099 in 2025.
  • For 2026, the NPR population is expected to decrease to 2,069,477.
  • By 2027, the NPR population is projected to rise slightly to 2,086,916.
  • NPRs will account for 6.1% of the Canadian population in 2025.
  • In 2026, NPRs will represent 5.0% of the population.
  • This percentage will remain at 5.0% in 2027.

How many Non-Permanent Residents does the IRCC anticipate welcoming over the next three years?

The 2024 Annual Report on Immigration includes forecasts for NPR inflows over the next three years. The IRCC expects to see a total of 887,625 new NPRs by the end of this year.

In the following three years, the IRCC aims to welcome the specified numbers of NPRs:

  • Total NPR inflows are projected to be 816,900 in 2025.
  • Total NPR inflows are estimated at 659,036 in 2026.
  • Total NPR inflows are expected to reach 892,568 in 2027.
  • NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers are forecasted at 673,650 for 2025.
  • NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers are projected to be 516,600 in 2026.
  • NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers are anticipated to be 543,600 in 2027.
  • NPR inflows for contingency reserves are estimated at 143,250 in 2025.
  • NPR inflows for contingency reserves are projected to be 142,436 in 2026.
  • NPR inflows for contingency reserves are expected to reach 348,968 in 2027.
  • The number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP) is forecasted to be 285,750 in 2025.
  • The number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP) is estimated at 128,700 in 2026.
  • The number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP) is expected to be 155,700 in 2027.
  • The number of new work permit holders through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) is projected to be 82,000 each year from 2025 to 2027.
  • The number of new study permit holders is estimated at 305,900 for each year from 2025 to 2027.

Work permits issued under the International Mobility Program (IMP) may encompass the following programs or pathways:

The following programs or pathways may be included under the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Program:

The International Experience Class (IEC) Program.

Work permits issued through Foreign Trade Agreements with other countries, including:

  • The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
  • The Trans-Pacific Partnership.
  • The Canada-European Union Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (CETA).
  • The Intra-Company Transfer Program.
  • The Significant Benefit Work Permit Program.

Additionally, the following programs or pathways may be included under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP):

  • The High-wage, Low-wage, Agriculture, and/or In-Home Caregiver streams of the TFWP.
  • The Seasonal Agriculture Worker Program.
  • The Global Talent Stream.
  • Please note that these lists are not exhaustive and do not encompass all work permit issuing programs and streams available under the IMP or TFWP.

Actions Taken by IRCC to Achieve NPR Targets

Canada’s immigration department has committed to several measures aimed at decreasing the country’s overall Non-Permanent Resident (NPR) population. These measures consist of:

  • Introducing language and field of study criteria for international graduates seeking a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) after November 1, 2024.
  • Making the cap on international students a permanent aspect of Canada’s immigration system.
  • Increasing wage thresholds for the high-wage stream within the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
  • Limiting eligibility for Spousal Open Work Permits for spouses of international students.
  • Prioritizing an “In-Canada Focus” program within Canada’s Express Entry system.
  • Pausing the processing of Labor Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) under the low-wage stream of the TFWP for work permit applications in metropolitan areas where the unemployment rate is 6% or above.
  • Terminating the COVID-era policy that permitted certain foreign nationals on visitor visas in Canada to apply for job-specific work permits.
  • Halting flag poling services for PGWP candidates and imposing stricter regulations on flag poling services at Canadian ports of entry.