Canada is set to grow by 21 million people through immigration. By 2073, Statistics Canada predicts that there will be 63 million people living in Canada. Their data suggests that the population could vary dramatically during the next five decades, potentially ranging from 47.1 million to 87.2 million, when examining several projection scenarios from 2023 to 2073.
Statistics Canada emphasizes that “projections are not predictions. The agency developed the estimates by considering “recent trends” and consulting population experts specifically during the development of these projections. According to Statistics Canada’s medium-growth scenario (M1), Canada is expected to have a population of 63 million people by 2073.
How Will Canada’s Population Grow in the Next 50 Years?
Despite the natural aging of the population, an estimated 21 million more people will live in Canada during the next 50 years. Not too long after hitting the 40 million mark, immigration had a major role in pushing Canada’s population over 41 million.
According to projections, the proportion of “older adults” (those 65 and above) in Canada’s population might range between 21.9% to 32.3% by 2073. On the other hand, the majority of Statistics Canada’s projection models, including the M1 scenario, which projects a population of 63 million, predict that the percentage of children (ages 0 to 14) in the population would decrease by 2073.
A decrease in the number of children and an increase in the number of elderly citizens are predicted to cause the average age in Canada to climb. In contrast to the present average age of 41.6 years in 2023, the average age by 2073 may range between 42.6 to 50.1 years.
Challenges Facing Canada’s Population Growth
The research states that Canada had a record low fertility rate in 2022 and that life expectancy had declined for three years in a row (2020– 2022).
According to Statistics Canada, the country’s aging population, low fertility rate, and deteriorating life expectancy all contribute to the country’s expected decline in yearly population growth rate. According to M1 predictions, this rate will decrease by 0.33% during the next fifty years, from an average of 1.12% over the previous three decades to 0.79% by 2072/2073.
Two major issues need addressing due to this demographic tendency hampering Canada’s population expansion. Reduced life expectancy slows down the population growth of the elderly, and Canada’s low fertility rate prevents the country from having enough new babies to maintain or grow its population locally. For example, the fertility rate fell to 1.33 births per woman in 2022, the lowest level ever recorded. A natural population control strategy necessitates a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman.
Moreover, Canada’s aging population is a considerable difficulty in addition to the previously mentioned factors. The social structures, especially the healthcare system, in Canada are under more and more stress as the population ages. These systems usually reduce individual financial burdens by spreading costs over the larger working population, frequently through taxes.
The number of people in the working age population who can afford healthcare bills tends to decline as the population ages. Less young people are joining and contributing to Canada’s labor force as a result of this demographic change, which exacerbates the nation’s social and economic problems.
Navigating Canada’s Aging Population – The Key Ingredient
One of the most important tools for bucking the aforementioned demographic trends is immigration. In addition to making up almost all of Canada’s labor force growth, it is also vital to the country’s ability to balance its demographics by bringing in younger generations and filling shortages in important industries. In fact, immigration recently caused Canada’s average population age to fall—from 40.9 to 40.6 years—for the first time in 65 years.
Immigration is not a stand-alone remedy, though. While the immigration wave of 2022 and 2023 briefly lowered the average and median ages, Statistics Canada states that the aging of the population is still an unavoidable trend. This emphasizes how important it is for Canada to continue receiving a steady stream of new immigrants each year in order to maintain its economy, demographic balance, and general standard of living.
Significant benefits from this link also accrue to immigrants. In Canada’s multicultural and welcoming society, newcomers have a higher level of living whether they are temporary employees or permanent residents. Furthermore, Statistics Canada data shows that by the middle of their twenties, immigrants tend to earn more than their Canadian-born colleagues, depending on when they arrived.