Statistics Canada has recently released a report that changes the way it counts Canada’s non-permanent residents.
As per the recent population estimate, Canada’s non-permanent residents account for over 2,198,679 individuals. This is a difference of around one million from Censur 2021.
The report is important as Statistics Canada acknowledges that it undercounted Canada’s non-permanent residents. However, the revised methodology has a prominent implication for Canadian public policy in numerous areas, like economic & labor market planning, immigration, housing, etc.
The Nation’s Demographic Estimates For July 1, 2023
Statistics Canada’s update comes following a report by CIBC Economics & C.D Howe Institute, which found that the quarterly estimate of population growth was undercounting NPRs, like students, temporary residents, & temporary foreign professionals.
CIBC estimated that there could be as many as one million non-permanent residents in Canada who aren’t counted. In addition, it also noted that data from Census 2021 demonstrates that there were just 925k non-permanent residents in Canada. However, the quarterly estimate revealed the count to be 1.17 million. It asserts that the number is likely to be much higher because of undercounting.
CIBC also stated that Statistics Canada was aware of undercounting in the Census 2011. The census was estimated to have undercounted the number of non-permanent residents by more than 40%. Well, back then, the absolute number of NPRs was quite small; thus, the undercounting did not have profound implications on population growth.
Comprehending The Gap
There are numerous possible reasons for the undercounting of NPRs. As per the CIBC report, the census does not have an accurate count of all foreign students. In addition, the report states that this is probably because students often come from nations where talking to the government isn’t advised. Further, numerous students are unable to complete the census because of the dilemma surrounding the instruction, which says that students must not include their address if they are going to return to live with their family during that particular year.
Moreover, the census also doesn’t consider individuals on a maintained status in Canada. This implies that individuals who have expired study, work or visitor visas who have applied for an extension or a new permit.
The CIBC report also states that Statistics Canada predicts that temporary inhabitants will leave the nation within a month of the permit’s expiry. However, temporary residents often stay for an extended time period because of ample employment opportunities or because they are waiting for ITAs via the Express Entry program.
Further, the pandemic affected the total population because many borders were shut & non-permanent residents weren’t able to return to their home nations. In response, IRCC introduced work permits & PGWP extensions, encouraging newcomers to stay while immigration from abroad was at a standstill.
Canada’s Population
Statistics Canada report reveals that over 96% of Canada’s population growth in 2022 came from international migration.
Another report by Statistics Canada released in March demonstrates that Canada’s population had reached over 39.5 million by January 1, 2023. It estimated that over 607,782 people in Canada were non-permanent residents.
In addition, Census 2021 data found that newcomers made up to 23% of Canada’s population. An inaccurate measure of the population via undercounting can create challenges in economic forecasting & adequately meeting the needs of all Canadians as well as newcomers in terms of essentials like healthcare, housing supply, etc.