According to Statistics Canada, immigration fueled Canada’s highest population since 1957. The population has soared, thus reaching over 40,528,396 residents & citizens on October 1, 2023. The surge reflects an increase of around 430,635 people, making a notable growth of 1.1% since July 1, 2023. This increase represents the highest population growth in any quarter since the second quarter of 1957 when the population in Canada expanded by 1.2%. At the time, Canada’s population was only 16.7 million & immigration fueled Canada’s highest population growth.
Well, this was done by post-war baby boom births & an influx of refugees following the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. The population growth for the first nine months of this year has been the largest recorded, totalling over 1,030,378 people. This includes the record-high growth witnessed in 2022.
International Migration: The Main Source Of Population Growth
In the third quarter of 2023, a vast majority of population growth was because of international migration.
The rest of the growth resulted from natural increase or the difference between the number of births & deaths. In the forthcoming years, the contribution of natural increase to population growth is expected to remain low because of Canada’s aging population, high number of immigrants arriving in Canada, & low fertility rates.
In addition, during the third quarter of 2023, the nation welcomed over 107,972 immigrants. From January to September 2023, immigration reached over 79.8% of IRCC’s annual target of 465,000 immigrants.
Canada has also seen a surge in the number of non-permanent residents, reaching a historical net increase of over 312,758 non-permanent residents in the third quarter. Well, this increase can be attributed mainly to a rise in work & study permit holders & to a lesser extent, an uptick in refugee claimants.
Provinces Are Also Experiencing Population Growth
As immigration fueled Canada’s highest population growth since 1957, there is an exception of the Northwest Territories. Well, apart from the Northwest Territories, all the territories & provinces experienced population growth. In particular, the third quarter of 2023 witnessed population growth rates exceeding the national average in PEI, Alberta, & Ontario.
In terms of interprovincial immigration, Alberta stands out as the only province experiencing net gains, an increase of 17,094 in the third quarter of 2023. This marks the fifth successive quarter with gains exceeding over 10,000.
In addition, most of Alberta’s gains have been attributed to interprovincial exchanges with BC & Ontario. In comparison, BC faced its first five consecutive quarters of interprovincial migration losses since 2013.
Furthermore, despite ongoing net losses in interprovincial migration since the first quarter of 2020, Ontario displayed a smaller net loss in the third quarter of 2023. In contrast to the growth observed during the pandemic, the Atlantic provinces experienced slight/ negative net interprovincial migration, significantly due to a decrease in the migrants moving from Ontario to the Atlantic Provinces.
Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026
On November 1, Canada released its Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026. The Plan acts as a guideline for the number of new permanent residents who will be admitted into Canada over the next three years under each of the three main immigration classes, i.e., humanitarian, economic, & family.
In 2024, Canada will target the admission of over 485,000 new immigrants. In 2025 & 2026, Canada will welcome over 500,000 new immigrants yearly.
Moreover, the nation will welcome around 281,135 newcomers under the economic class, or 58% of the annual target, in the next year. By 2026, this will rise to 301,250 immigrants or 60% of the yearly target.
Specifically, Express Entry & PNP targets are set to rise. The Express Entry target will be around 110,700 permanent resident admissions in 2024. This number will increase to 117,500 in both 2025 & 2026. In addition, the PNP target will be 110,000 immigrants in 2024, rising to 120,000 in 2025 & 2026 each.