Analyzing previous years of Express Entry draw data provides valuable insights into what we can reasonably anticipate for the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) that may be issued in December 2024. By examining trends and averages, we can make informed predictions about this critical immigration program.

If the number of ITAs issued for the remainder of 2024 aligns proportionally with the immigration landing target for 2025—similar to the average patterns observed from 2021 to 2023—we can estimate that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) might issue approximately 3,522 ITAs through Express Entry in December 2024.

However, it’s essential to note that this figure is only an estimate based on historical data and specific assumptions. The actual number of ITAs issued could vary significantly, depending on evolving immigration priorities, policy decisions, and labor market needs.

In this article, we’ll detail how we arrived at this projection and explore potential factors that could influence the number of ITAs issued in December. Additionally, we’ll discuss the profiles of candidates who might receive these coveted invitations, helping Express Entry applicants better understand their chances of success.

Predicting the Final Express Entry ITA Count for This Year

The issuance of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) by IRCC is designed to align with its goals for permanent resident landings. A landing marks the moment when a foreign national becomes a permanent resident, either upon arrival in Canada or by transitioning from temporary status.

Key points to remember:

  • Not all ITAs lead to landings—some are returned or go unused.
  • There’s a delay between ITA issuance and actual landings due to processing times.

The Immigration Levels Plan, updated annually, sets targets for the number of permanent residents admitted each year. However, these targets measure landings, not ITAs. A landing occurs when an application is finalized, which can take place at a port of entry, a local office, or through electronic confirmation.

Using annual ITA data to estimate immigration targets can be misleading, as it overlooks processing delays and the time it takes applicants to move to Canada.

In a July 2024 memorandum, IRCC officials noted that due to processing times of 6 to 16 months, ITAs issued from July 2024 to February 2025 will primarily contribute to meeting 2025 targets.

Thus, a better way to assess remaining ITAs for a year is to consider those issued between July and December, aligning them with the targets for the following year. This method more accurately connects ITA issuance with long-term immigration objectives.

Based on ITA issuance trends from pre-COVID years, IRCC typically allocates 43–46% of the next year’s landing target as ITAs during the period from July 1 to December 31.

Outside of the COVID-19 period, this proportion has shown consistent stability over time. 

  • In 2018, 34,738 ITAs were issued from July to December.
  • The Federal High-Skilled annual landing target for 2018 was 74,900.
  • ITAs issued in 2018 accounted for 46.38% of the year’s landing target.
  • In 2019, 50,100 ITAs were issued in the same period.
  • The annual landing target for 2019 was 81,400.
  • ITAs represented 61.55% of the landing target in 2019.
  • In 2022, 25,509 ITAs were issued between July and December.
  • The Federal High-Skilled landing target for 2022 was 55,900.
  • This was 45.63% of the landing target.
  • In 2023, 35,750 ITAs were issued during this timeframe.
  • The annual landing target for 2023 was 82,800.
  • ITAs issued made up 43.18% of the year’s landing target.
  • In 2024, 50,718 ITAs were issued from July to December.
  • The Federal High-Skilled landing target for 2024 was 110,770.
  • This accounted for 45.79% of the year’s landing target.

By excluding the 2019 ITA-to-landings proportion as an outlier, we can calculate an average for the remaining proportions to understand how IRCC typically manages ITA issuances. On average, the ITAs issued from July to December each year represent 45.245% of the following year’s landing target.

Forecasting December ITA Numbers – What to Expect

For 2025, IRCC has set a target of 124,680 new immigrants through the Express Entry system. From July to November 2024, 52,888 ITAs were issued, representing 42.42% of next year’s target.

Assuming the proportion of ITAs issued this year aligns with the five-year average (excluding outliers), IRCC could issue ITAs equivalent to 2.825% of the 2025 target in December 2024. This would mean an additional 3,522 ITAs for Express Entry candidates by year-end.

However, this projection relies on assumptions and past trends, which may not predict future actions accurately. IRCC’s decisions could result in significantly fewer or more ITAs based on factors such as refusal rates or processing timelines, which remain unknown to the public but likely inform the department’s strategies.

Who Could Be the Next ITA Recipients?

IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan provides insights into the types of candidates likely to receive the remaining ITAs in 2024.

The 2025-2027 Levels Plan divides the Federal High-Skilled category (which includes Express Entry) into two distinct streams: “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus”. Together, these categories represent the entirety of Express Entry landings and targets for 2025.

Federal Economic Priorities

  • Allocated 41,700 admissions in 2025.
  • Focuses on category-based selections for candidates with professional skills in high-demand sectors or strong French language proficiency.

Categories for 2025 include:

  • Healthcare occupations.
  • Trade occupations.
  • French-language proficiency.
  • Francophone immigration targets outside Quebec will increase, from 8.5% in 2025 to 10% by 2027.

In-Canada Focus

  • Allocated 82,980 admissions in 2025.
  • Prioritizes candidates already in Canada to meet immigration goals without significantly increasing the overall population.
  • Research shows these candidates typically excel in Canada’s labor market.

Likely to include:

Given these allocations, it is reasonable to expect the remaining 3,522 ITAs in 2024 to be issued to:

  • CEC candidates.
  • PNP candidates.
  • Candidates with strong French language proficiency.
  • Candidates with professional experience in healthcare or trade sectors.

The Express Entry draws conducted earlier in 2024 show this pattern clearly. For instance, the last 20 draws held by IRCC since August 2024 illustrate this trend.

  • Canadian Experience Class: 7 draws (August – December 2024)
  • Provincial Nominee Program: 7 draws
  • French language proficiency: 4 draws
  • Trade occupations: 1 draw
  • Healthcare occupations: 1 draw